2063Now

2063Now | August 2025

In a chaotic world where every event, conflict or diplomatic crisis seems to redefine the global future, the work of French historian Fernand Braudel reminds us that systemic transformations take place over the "long term" [1]. To combine this long-term vision with the necessary agility in the face of one-off crises, African countries need to engage in strategic thinking and planning that transcends political cycles, if they are to succeed.

African countries, in all their diversity, were never fortunate enough to be part of the "end of history" predicted by Francis Fukuyama in the early 1990s, nor of the promises of a new, peaceful, harmonized and prosperous world order following the end of the Cold War. On the contrary, for almost forty years, the continent has in turn experienced the "lost decade" of structural adjustment plans, followed by a revival of hope in the 2000s marked by debt cancellation and economic growth, before seeing the fragility of its macroeconomic foundations sorely tested by the global financial crisis, the end of the commodity super-cycle and the COVID-19 pandemic. Added to this are the increasingly visible and damaging effects of climate change, economic tensions between the major powers (particularly the United States and China), as well as the challenge to international law posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resurgence of tensions in the Near and Middle East, where massacres of civilian populations and famine continue amidst almost general indifference.

This new "world disorder" is multidimensional, and exposes African countries in particular to numerous risks. In addition to the weakening of international law, the economic and imperialist appetites for the continent's strategic resources - particularly those needed for the energy transition - are growing, and development objectives and "North-South" solidarity mechanisms, notably official development assistance, are being called into question.

In this context of global disorder, African countries must chart their own course, both in their singularity and collectively as a continent, in order to assert strategic autonomy, guarantee their sovereignty, promote long-term "shared prosperity" [2] for their populations, and meet the major challenges of this century.

International law can no longer protect already fragile African states

"The inequality of arms has made us lose everything, for where force prevails, right is lost" [3]. In a 1643 correspondence denouncing the moral crime of slavery and the colonial appetites of the United Provinces and Portugal over his kingdom, Ntotila Nkanga A Lukeni (also known as Garcia II, Ntotila de Kongo Dia Ntotila, King of the "Kingdom of Kongo") aptly analyzed the prevalence of force over law in a world in chaos, which would plunge African states under European domination for several centuries.

In view of the diplomatic crises and conflicts that have been raging in recent years, Nkanga A Lukeni's quote is as relevant as ever. In recent years, international law has not ceased to exist, but it is clear that it is struggling to resolve existing conflicts. Worse still, it is no longer able to stop the imperialist appetites and crimes of those who have the economic and military means to pursue their interests, or the right diplomatic alliances.

International justice bodies and specialized NGOs are relegated to the role of commentators on international crisis situations, and even threatened in their work, even by Western democracies, whose very essence is based in part on the recognition of international law.

In this world where the law of the strongest seems to reign, security and international diplomacy issues could monopolize the already limited political action and budgetary resources of many governments, diverting them from priority development issues at national level (infrastructure, education, health, climate change, etc.). Despite the new global security paradigm, socio-political and economic fragilities are still evident in many African states. Despite a rapidly growing population, Africa only contributes around 2.5% of global GDP and 3% of international trade, with an average human development index of 0.536, the lowest of any continent. Nearly half of Africa's population still has no access to electricity, and 418 million people are still deprived of drinking water. And while roads are essential for transporting goods and people, only 43% of rural populations have access to an all-weather road. These fragilities are also illustrated by the fact that 32 African countries are among the least developed countries (out of 44) and are home to the largest number of UN peacekeeping missions, testifying to persistent structural vulnerabilities [4].

The explosive cocktail of the fragility of African states and the weakening of international law can generate a double threat for the continent. The first is intra-African, with a growing risk of territorial disputes and competition for resources being settled by violence and arms, particularly over access to water. If nothing changes in the management of Africa's river basins, 920 million people could be living in areas at high or very high risk of conflict by 2050 [5].

The threat is also international: the fragility and need for peace of certain states whets economic appetites and diplomatic ambitions. Belligerents involved in conflicts in resource-rich countries, such as Sudan, benefit from the support of foreign powers eager to secure the supply of mineral resources. In the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), access to mineral resources was at the heart of the peace agreements with Rwanda, supported by the US administration, thus selling out the country's sovereignty and without regard for the rights of local populations.

The end of the global moral consensus on reducing inequality and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are forcing African countries into action

The 90-day suspension of funding from the US agency USAID in January 2025 revealed the heavy dependence of many development programs, particularly health systems, on US support, which accounts for around 20% of Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Africa. This decision is part of a longer-standing trend of questioning, even distrust, of North-South solidarity mechanisms within Western countries, against a backdrop of sluggish economic growth and conservative pressure from public opinion.

Added to this is the end of a global moral consensus around the reduction of inequalities, the achievement of the SDGs and a prioritization of proximity or strategic issues (such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza). In 2023, only five member countries of the Development Assistance Committee reached the 0.7% ODA/GNI target: Denmark, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden. By 2024, this number had fallen to four, with Germany seeing its ratio drop from 0.82% to 0.67% [6].

This dynamic is catastrophic in human terms, given the many lives that will be affected by these decisions. It is, however, a necessary reminder to African countries that their development can only be achieved through their own efforts.

The financing needs are immense, and remain far from being covered to meet the multiple priorities. Africa received only around 3.3% of global climate finance flows between 2011 and 2020, a tiny fraction of what is needed. According to the United Nations, the cost of achieving the SDGs in Africa by 2030 is estimated at around $1.3 trillion a year, while the needs to close the infrastructure gap are estimated at between $68 and $108 billion a year [7] [8].

A large part of the answer to financing development in Africa lies in mobilizing domestic resources. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), with deep and properly sequenced reforms, Africa could mobilize an additional $1,430 billion in domestic resources from its different types of capital - fiscal, natural, financial, entrepreneurial and human - to accelerate inclusive and sustainable growth [8].

African financial institutions must rise to these challenges and work faster to deploy capital where it is needed, particularly institutional investors with long-term investment mandates. The Africa Finance Corporation estimates that total domestic capital on the continent exceeds $4 trillion, of which more than $1.6 trillion is in the non-banking sector: $455 billion in pension funds, $320 billion in insurance, $250 billion in public development banks, $150 billion in sovereign wealth funds, and $473 billion in foreign exchange reserves, including $38 billion in gold [9].

In addition, it is essential that Africa's largest fortunes adopt a form of economic patriotism. Following the example of the American philanthropic model of the XXᵉ century, the continent's major fortunes and family offices could invest more collectively and assume risks in strategic sectors, where private equity is sorely lacking and where neither the state - due to limited resources - nor international investors - due to excessive risk perception - can intervene.

Long-term strategic thinking: a necessity for survival and prosperity in an ever-changing world

In a complex and ever-changing geostrategic environment, only states with strategic thinking and long-term political planning will be able to make their voice heard in the concert of nations. They will also be able to ensure sustainable economic growth, regardless of the crises - be they economic, military, energy or climatic - in the years to come.

Energy transition, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, strategic raw materials, value chains, space conquest: these are just some of the key areas in which governments need to adopt effective, appropriate public policies. Over and above the numerous roadmaps that exist at national and continental level, the implementation of planning and execution tools (such as interministerial delivery units ) is essential if we are to move from fantasized economic potential to genuine long-term value creation. This is particularly relevant in a context of limited budgetary resources for governments and international competition for private capital. Any unrealized potential is a failure, and African governments need to execute projects faster.

The agility of African states and their ability to think strategically will guarantee sustainable prosperity for the continent. Conversely, their absence will plunge many countries into political and economic stagnation, precipitating the impoverishment of already highly vulnerable populations.

The new global disorder is conducive to redefining past alliances and economic pragmatism to foster useful and beneficial partnerships for industrialization, transformation and training, creating a "strategic autonomy open to the world" to paraphrase Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (in his vision for Europe during the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union in 2023).

The new world disorder is also an invitation for Africa to draw on its history and collective imagination to build a political and cultural vision capable of meeting the challenges of this century. All countries in search of power summon up the past to meet the challenges of this century. It's a question of synthesizing the best of our socio-cultural ethos with what the world has to offer, to derive a forward-looking dynamic of transformation. Awareness of our structural vulnerabilities and mastery of our dependencies must be at the heart of our strategic priorities.

In a world where the distinction between enemies and allies is disappearing in favor of shifting interests, the plurality of inter-state partnerships is becoming an imperative.

Last but not least, the production of ideas by African think-tanks and independent expert platforms is essential to fuel demanding, lucid reflection geared towards the concrete implementation of appropriate public policies. These forums must encourage public and private players to become fully aware of the many pressing issues facing the continent, so as to avoid repeating the missed opportunities of the 2010 decade - marked by historically low interest rates and an abundance of private capital from which Africa unfortunately failed to take full advantage.

Africa has what it takes to assert its strategic autonomy and build sustainable, shared prosperity

Despite their fragility, African countries are not lacking in assets to face up to this new global disorder.

Their collective weight in the United Nations General Assembly gives them strategic influence, particularly in supporting the expected reform of the organization (particularly the functioning of the Security Council, which should make African countries more representative on the eve of the 80th anniversary of the UN Charter [10]).

The continent also possesses critical metals and resources essential to the global energy transition, as well as unique natural capital that can be leveraged through adaptation and transition financing.

Among other things, African countries hold almost 30% of the world's reserves of critical minerals used in the energy transition, particularly cobalt (the DRC holds 70% of the world's reserves), lithium, copper, graphite, nickel and rare earths [11]. To realize this potential, it is imperative to move away from the short-termist extraction logic of the past and prioritize moving up the value chain through local economic transformation, generating wealth for local populations and governments. This would enable Africa to become a global hub for the processing of critical minerals and the production of green technologies, by developing an integrated value chain from extraction to processing, including manufacturing and technological innovation.

The same applies to natural capital. Several African institutions, such as the AfDB and Africa Investors [12], are calling for natural capital to be recognized as a productive and tangible public asset, and for natural ecosystems to be integrated into national strategies and the calculation of gross domestic product. Such recognition would make it possible to create a new generation of fiscal and financial instruments, freeing up viable nature-based solutions and directing capital allocation towards financing the transition and preserving ecosystems (particularly African coasts), a reservoir of wealth for populations. The AfDB estimates the potential of the "blue economy" at $405 billion by 2030. Tourism could play an active role in wealth creation, infrastructure modernization and job creation.

Africa's tourism potential is unique and largely unknown in a sector in search of new destinations. African countries boast incomparable assets: unspoilt natural landscapes, a diverse culture, a historic heritage, a diverse yet little-known gastronomy, and a young population capable of boosting the sector. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, African tourism could add $168 billion to GDP and create 18 million additional jobs by 2033, provided ambitious public policies are put in place. Many countries are leveraging their heritage through ambitious public policies and massive investment in the sector. For example, Morocco (development of air hubs), Benin (promotion of cultural heritage, memorial and business tourism), Rwanda (ecotourism and business tourism) and Kenya (digitalization and green tourism) are asserting themselves or reinventing themselves as leading tourist destinations for the years to come.

In addition to economic advantages, there have been major political and diplomatic advances: South Africa's historic presidency of the G20 and the rise of the BRICS+ are reshaping the world's geopolitical architecture. This recomposition offers African countries an unprecedented opportunity to rethink their alliances and partnerships, adopting a resolutely multipolar and competitive approach to conclude strategic agreements to their advantage.

In terms of demographics and human resources, Africa boasts a dynamic youth population that will reach nearly 2.5 billion by 2050 - a decisive asset in an ageing world, provided it is trained and integrated into value chains. The diaspora, for its part, already plays a financing role, with remittances of over 90 billion dollars in 2023 (far exceeding ODA) [6]. In the future, the diaspora will play a greater role in relaying skills, international practices and political and economic influence in host countries.

Finally, at a time when international law is being flouted and abused, African countries can assert themselves as guarantors of international law and producers of standards, following the example of South Africa at the International Court of Justice in the context of Gaza [13], or by drawing inspiration from the continent's long tradition of standard-setting, embodied in founding texts such as the Manden Charter of 1236 [14] under the Mandinka Empire, to create new paradigms and embody global leadership in the field of law (notably on issues of protecting the rights of indigenous populations, natural capital and ecosystems).

To meet the major challenges of this century, African nations need to combine long-term strategic preparation with effective responses to present-day emergencies. Only then will they be able to guarantee their sovereignty, assert their strategic autonomy and build sustainable, shared prosperity for their populations.

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Sources & References

• [1] "Are we at a turning point in history?" David Motadel, The Guardian, 2025 translated and published by Courrier international
• [2] "L'urgence africaine - Changeons le modèle de croissance!" Kako Nubupko, Odile Jacob, 2019
• [3] "Le Royaume Kongo sous Vita Nkanga, les fondements de la Maison Royale Ki-Nlaza 1636-1665" Bruce Mateso, PAARI, 2024
• [4] Center for Global Development, UN Trade & Development
• [5] "920 million people could face conflict over the world's rivers by 2050: what our study found in Africa" Sophie de Bruin, The Conversation, 2023
• [6] "Demystifying Africa's dependence on foreign aid" Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2025
• [7] "Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa 2024", Climate Policy Initiative, 2024
• [8] "African Economic Outlook 2025" African Development Bank, 2025
• [9] "State of Africa's Infrastructure Report 2025" Africa Finance Corporation, 2025
• [10] United Nations
• [11] "Africa's strategic positioning in the global green revolution and critical minerals race", Marit Kitaw, Brookings, 2025
• [12] "G20 Nature Investment Roadmap 2.0", Africa Investors & Sustainable Markets Initiative (SMI) Africa Council, 2025
• [13] "Comment l'Afrique du Sud défend une cause universelle" Le Monde Diplomatique, Anne-Cécile Robert, 2024
• [14] "The Manden Charter, proclaimed at Kouroukan Fouga" UNESCO